"Each time a person stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others. . .they send forth a ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring, those ripples build a current that can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance."Robert F. Kennedy
Using grade school physics of both Newtonian and Nuclear models, does anyone foresee counter currents of sufficient size to minimize/change direction of the huge 'Tsunami' roaring down on us, taking away not only our Freedom, but our Lives? Regardless if our salaries are dependant on us not knowing the inconvenient truths of reality (global warming, corporate rule, stagnant energy science) portrayed by the rare articles in the news media? I know only one - a free science, our window to Reality - that easily resolves the Foundational Problem of Quantum Physics and takes E=MC2 out of Kindergarten
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Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Who should be held accountable for global economic disequilibrium?
relationships, relationships - halt scientific advances in energy and it backfires on economic disequilibrium - untold wealth & freedom for the few, untold wealth in corporate coffers - as traffic nightmares, global warming and resource wars accelerate and quality of life deteriorates
Who should be held accountable for global economic disequilibrium?
The global supply of deposits exceeding demand constitutes a basic phenomenon for the global economic disequilibrium at present. The United States, the world's first powerful nation, has been shifted from a net exporter of capital into a net importer, by the means of continuously borrowing capital from the developing countries and oil exporting countries to keep up its trade and economic growth. And varied disputes in trade and exchange rate with China and other countries have occurred during this process.
Analyzing the cause, there are two diametrically opposite explanations in the American academic circle. One viewpoint ascribes it to a steady drop of the US interest rate and a deterioration of the constant account, whereas the other viewpoint, mainly held by some US scholars in the administrative field, attributes it to changes in the global flow pattern of international capital and excessive US dollar reserves accumulated by the developing countries from the development of their export-oriented economy in order to respond to any possible global crises, and this facilitate or result in a huge US deficit, and it is owned to a non-American factor. The implication is that the global economic disequilibrium is caused by the factor of the developing countries.
The United States has sustained its economic growth with the use of capital from the developing countries, as some of these countries have reinvested the US market with fairly a large amount of dollar reserves they hold. Hence, it can be said that the cause for the present enduring global economic disequilibrium hinges on the basic identical equation between the amount of capital borrowed by the U.S. and the amount of capital lent by the developing countries (The oil dollar factor is excluded for the time being).
To step back a pace, under the circumstances of obvious inequality in economic strength of various countries in the contemporary world, in which GDP of the U.S. makes up one third of the global GDP, it seems unfair and inequitable to prompt the developing countries on the disadvantageous side to speed up the renunciation of restrictions on financial liberalization and restrictions on exchange rate one-sided while the U.S. still turns to its trade protectionist policy to reduce their exports and US dollar reserve.
Firstly, it is the last resort for those developing countries, the disadvantageous countries under the imperfect international monetary setup, to accumulate a relatively large amount of dollar reserves, and it should be allowed to have a steady process to change this situation and ensure and maintain the basic stability of their eco-social society amid economic restructuring. Otherwise, the global north-south contradictions and the development of the world economy will be more turbulent and unstable in case of repeated economic crises.
Secondly, if the export-oriented developing countries and oil exporting countries are asked to reduce their exports and the dollar reserves they hold, accelerate the pace for import and augment their own national investment within a short period of time, then it will be out and out impossible for the U.S. to retain a relatively low interest rate and a fairly high growth rate, and the unemployment issue and social contradiction will be more acute in the U.S. In a word, it is no good for the United States.
From what has been said, China should find ways and means to cope with the global economic disequilibrium and maintain the stable growth of global economy:
A. Appealing to those developing countries and new-emerging countries with relatively a large amount of US dollar reserve to beef up their domestic structural readjustment and reform and increase their domestic demand and, in line with their respective national conditions, to accelerate banking liberalization process, expand bilateral, multilateral trade cooperation, and particularly the bilateral and multilateral trade cooperation and currency cooperation among Asia nations (with emphases placed on China, Japan and the Republic of Korea).
B. Urging the U.S. to resume its accountability as the first powerful nation in resolving the global economic disequilibrium. It should first of all speed up its own policy adjustment and transfer some of its interests to ease contradictions in the world economy. With regard to its dollar policy, the US government should, take up its responsibility as the issuer of a leading currency with a high profile, and think of and seek for the steady growth of the global economy as much as it can.
C. Proposing to Asian countries to lessen a negative impact on the stable growth of the Asian economies from excessive fluctuations in US dollar exchange rate in the course of hastening the currency cooperation under the current international currency system of prioritizing the US dollar.
China, as a big developing country as well as an economy developing fairly rapidly with global attention, is duty bound to help maintain and advance the steady growth of the world economy. Hence, it should pace up its own reform in the course of self development on the one hand, including pushing ahead the market-oriented reform of the exchange rate mechanism. On the other hand, it should also voluntarily cooperate closely with other nations to build up their strategic trust in abiding by the rules of the WTO and other relevant world organizations and, in response to new challenges amid changes in the global economic setup, to partake actively and work jointly with them to safeguard its own development interests.
By People's Daily Online 11/24/06; The author is Xia Bin, director-general of the Institute of Financial Studies of the Development Research Center under the State Council, or the Chinese central government
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